Crude Oil Trades Bearish - All Hopes turn to G20 & OPEC's Meeting

Oil prices steady near year lows ahead of G20 OPEC meeting

U.S. crude oil is now trading at $51 a barrel, off a peak of $76 a barrel in early October, while Brent crude has plunged to $60 from above $86. United States crude production similarly remains near all-time highs, and the steady oversupply glut across the globe is seeing broader energy markets firmly restrained. "W$3 e believe oil is oversold and will likely bounce up from the current levels, as OPEC+ dials back production in December", Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note on Wednesday.

According to analysts from TDS, crude oil has joined industrial metals in reflecting a micro-macro dichotomy, as sour market sentiment keep prices below fundamentally determined levels.

Oil markets are also being affected by a downturn in wider financial markets.

Speaking of Saudi Arabia, the region's Energy Minister Khalid al Falih said that their output, this month, would definitely surpass October's production. However, this is conditional on Opec=plus reducing supply. The selloff last week was followed by some recovery Monday.

"We suspect that producers will start to withhold exports in the coming months, putting a floor under prices", said Capital Economics.

Oil seeing refreshed selling interest as Saudi barrel production continues to rise. But the US Administration this week refused to blame the Saudis for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, and President for the low oil prices and urged for even lower prices.

One of the analysts expecting an OPEC-assisted rebound in prices is legendary oil trader Andy Hall, who was nicknamed "God" for profitably predicting oil prices.

Because oil prices have fallen so far, I am inclined to think that prices are at or very near the bottom.

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Of the 31 who forecast a reduction, 12 said that Russian Federation wouldn't participate in actual supply restraints.

Saudi Arabia raised oil production to an all-time high in November, Reuters reported on Monday, pumping 11.1 million to 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) during the month.

Meanwhile, crude stockpiles in the US probably rose by 700,000 barrels last week, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

The downward pressure comes from surging supply and a slowdown in demand growth which is expected to result in an oil supply overhang by next year. "Rather, we hold strong conviction that current prices for Dec19 WTI-Brent at $-8.8/bbl provides an attractive opportunity to play our view on relative global supply/demand dynamics, with a potential for a significant widening below $-15/bbl".

We forecast total global liquid supply to increase by 2.3 million bpd in 2018 and by 1.02 million bpd in 2019.

The OPEC kingpin and world's leading oil exporter would like a higher price, and has suggested it will back a production cut when the cartel meets next week.

What will the demand scene in India be next year? . -China trade frictions and push for a pullback in future oil productions. Amid slower demand growth, we expect a near-term upside risk to our demand due to a pre-election demand surge in India in Q1 of 2019 and a possible de-escalation of the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

Key decision makers will be at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires later this week, in a meeting that may well decide the direction of oil prices in 2019.


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