US, China trade war could dent economic growth

Currency dealers fear the alarming increase will fan panic in the market for dollars causing a buying frenzy for the US dollar

The Pakistani rupee plunged about 7 percent on Tuesday in an apparent central bank devaluation, while the stock market snapped a six-day skid after the government said it plans to seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Threats include a further inflaming of the trade war between the U.S. and countries including China, and a sharper-than-expected rise in interest rates, which would accelerate capital flight from emerging markets. But growth could weaken significantly further if additional trade protectionist measures are put in place, it said.

Downgrades to global growth also reflected predictions of a slower expansion in the eurozone as well as turbulence in a number of emerging market economies. The reserve requirement ratio (RRR) was cut by a full percentage point, effective Octover 15, injecting a net 750 billion yuan (US$109.2 billion) in cash into the banking system.

It is the second time in 24 hours the International Monetary Fund has published sober warnings about the state of global finance.

The US growth forecast for 2019 is down from 2.7% to 2.5%.

He said the talks would be held for "such a programme, a stabilisation, a recovery programme, on which basis we could overcome this financial crisis".

President Donald Trump has already pushed through laws repealing banking rules in America for smaller institutions, saying they are holding back bank lending to businesses.

The IMF predicts that United Kingdom public borrowing will keep falling over the next few years. "I just say they're not ready yet".

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One could be the ending of "easy money". "Overall, market participants appear complacent about the risk of a sharp tightening of financial conditions". Pooling investment fees on various government financial assets also can improve returns for taxpayers, the report said.

The IMF, which with the World Bank is holding its annual meetings in Bali this week, cited escalating tensions between the world's two largest economies over trade tariffs, slower export growth in the euro zone, higher oil prices, and China's regulatory tightening in its property and financial sectors as factors hampering global growth.

"Support for multilateralism has been waning, a unsafe undercurrent that may undermine confidence in policymakers' ability to respond to future crises".

The rupiah has indeed been under strong downward pressure, especially over the last three months, as a result of monetary tightening and stronger economic growth in the United States, which has caused higher capital outflows, and the upward trend in global oil prices, which has increased Indonesia's trade deficit and consequently the current account deficit to more than 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

The IMF's warnings will increase fears that the present buoyancy in global growth may not last.

"In some advanced economies, some investors have grown overly confident and even possibly even complacent", Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF's monetary and capital-markets department, told reporters in Washington before the release of the report.

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