Nicondra: Watching the Caribbean For Tropical Development

Source NOAA

Despite low surface pressure, upper-level winds were not favorable for tropical cyclone formation as of Thursday afternoon.

Invest 91 L has been given an 80% chance of development within the next 2 days, and a 90% chance within the next 5 days.

A tropical depression or storm is likely to form near the Yucatan Peninsula by Monday.

The system is producing showers and thunderstorms from Central America across the Western Caribbean.

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If it were to become a tropical storm, it would be named Michael.

"Odds favor that a storm emerging from the northwestern Caribbean will track toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico rather than the Texas coastline this time of year", he said. But the weather service cautions that even if the system doesnt turn into a major storm, it could still bring "torrential" rain to nearby coastal areas. "If it does, it would be the middle of next week and would impact the north and central coastline of the Gulf of Mexico". However, temperatures will remain well above October averages over the next several days with highs remaining well into the 80s around the piedmont and in the 70s for the mountains.

Forecasters said it's too early to "speak definitively on widespread rains or flooding threats". "Oil rigs would want to start evacuating Tuesday".

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