Failure to strike deal with European Union 'could cost 500000 jobs'

Deloitte found a hard Brexit would put the brakes on German suppliers revenues

The EU chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has made clear that the UK's intention to restrict immigration from Europe and break free from the European court of justice means it can only expect a trade deal modelled on the one the EU has with Canada, which does not include services and would lead to British banks losing their financial services passport.

As David Davis and Philip Hammond arrive in Germany on Tuesday to schmooze business people and regional politicians to help give the United Kingdom the most costless and frictionless European Union trade deal possible, some of their ministerial colleagues are uneasy that they are being asked to make major Brexit policy decisions without being given all relevant information.

Earlier that day, London's Mayor Sadiq Khan published a report that estimates the possible cost of Brexit to the tune of €56bn and 500,000 jobs by 2030. The UK's economic output (measured by Gross Value Added) could fall by 3% by 2030 - the equivalent of £54.5bn.

A Downing Street spokesman told reporters the government's position was "unchanged": that we would consider making financial contributions for "specific policies and programmes where that is in our joint interest", such as scientific projects. The worst case scenario envisions the failure to secure a two-year transition period, leading to a decade of growth stagnation and the loss of 87,000 jobs.

Leader of the SNP at Westminster, Ian Blackford, said: "Time is running out to prevent the economic catastrophe of an extreme Tory Brexit".

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"I've released these impact assessments because the British people and our businesses have a right to know the likely impact of the various options the government are considering on their lives and personal finances".

The Morgan McKinley report is one of the starkest data points yet showing how hiring has slowed as firms struggle to get clarity on what access they will have to Europe's financial markets following Brexit. The analysis does however highlight the scale of the comparative risks associated with each scenario and potential outcome from the negotiations. She said she was confident parliament would back her amendments, although other prominent lawmakers have previously called for a sweeping relocation of euro business from London to the European Union after Brexit.

But there may be surprise, bordering on shock, that even the Prime Minister's most senior ministers are not being trusted to see what the Treasury assesses as the costs and benefits of different trading arrangements with the EU's Single Market.

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