Oil markets cautious as OPEC cuts are met by rising U.S. output

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Global energy markets are set for "major upheaval" as the United States cements its status as the world's largest oil and gas producer, while China overtakes it as the biggest oil consumer.

Another milestone will be reached soon after: By the late 2020s, the US - which only lifted its ban on oil exports in 2015 - will ship more oil to foreign markets than it imports. That "will bring a lot of dollars to US business".

The IEA's 2017 World Energy Outlook finds that global energy markets will be shaped by four major trends over the next three decades: The United States will become the world's leading producer of oil and natural gas; renewable energy, led by a major expansion of solar power in China and India, will experience rapid growth; the share of electricity - and electric vehicles - in the energy mix will expand; and China's continuing economic expansion will increasingly be fueled by clean energy.

In its monthly oil market report, the Paris-based IEA cut its oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) for this year and next, to an estimated 1.5 million bpd in 2017 and 1.3 million bpd in 2018.

It said the developing countries in Asia account for two-thirds of global energy growth, with the rest coming mainly from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.

OPEC also says in contrast to the IEA that demand will rise by 1.51 million bpd next year, up 130,000 bpd from previously, to 98.45 million bpd.

Yet that could still change, the IEA said.

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That will benefit the U.S.as it turns from imports to exports.

"Even with the extraordinary move to a net export position, the health of the USA energy economy remains intricately linked with those of its neighbors in North America and with choices made by countries further afield", the group said.

The largest contribution to demand growth - nearly 30 per cent - would come from India, whose share of global energy would rise to 11 per cent by 2040, it said.

In the USA, the report assumes that improvements in fuel economy standards for cars and trucks will help reduce demand for oil.

"There are many examples of a country switching from being a net energy exporter to a net importer: it is very rare to see the opposite, especially when the country in question is one of the world's largest importers of oil".

"I think this group of committed and responsible producers came together. and I think they will continue to do what it takes to take us to the next level", he said at an worldwide oil conference.

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